By Ryan Ottiger, Staff Writer

With Big East play coming to a close, it is time to take a look at what teams have potential to win the conference tournament and where Xavier stands in the mix. 

As it stands right now, Xavier is in a three-way tie for eighth place with four games left. It is highly likely they will finish the season between the 6-9 slot, meaning they will have a lot of ground to make up in hopes of advancing in the Big East Tournament on March 11. 

The structure of the tournament allows the top five Big East teams to automatically make the quarterfinals, with seeds four and five matching up, while the top three seeds wait for an opponent. Barring a major surprise, the top five is essentially set in order. St. John’s ranks as the No. 1 seed, UConn ranks No. 2, Villanova No. 3, Seton Hall No. 4 and Creighton No. 5. 

Assuming the conference rankings remain until the end of the season, Xavier would take on Georgetown in the 8-9 game, Butler would take on Providence in the 7-10 game and DePaul would face Marquette in the 6-11 first-round games. The winners of the Xavier, Butler and DePaul games would face St. John’s, UConn and Villanova, respectively. 

St. John’s and UConn are the overwhelming tournament favorites, with the teams boasting 15-1 and 15-2 conference records, respectively. These are also the only ranked teams, with UConn ranked No. 5 and St. John’s ranked No. 17 on the AP Top 25 Poll. 

For Xavier’s current path, they would face St. John’s if they defeat Georgetown, which they previously have. Another Xavier vs St. John’s game would mean the third meeting of the season between the Pitino coaches. Both games have been very competitive, despite two St. John’s wins. Given this path and the season it has been, it is unlikely Xavier gets far in the tournament this year.

However, the Big East Tournament does leave little room for error in its single-elimination format. Even with St. John’s and UConn being the clear favorites, nothing is certain. UConn lost recently in a massive upset to Creighton and St. John’s has been in multiple close games and even dropped a game to No. 10 seed Providence. 

For Xavier, this margin for error is smaller. The Musketeers will have to find ways to make up for their lack of frontcourt size while maintaining their offense. Right now, Xavier ranks near the bottom of the conference in opponent points per game, while also ranking near the bottom in team rebounds.

On the offensive end, the Musketeers have been more than enough, averaging 78.3 points per game, while ranking towards the top of the conference in 3-point and free-throw metrics. Defensive inconsistencies and poor late-game execution have stood as a major obstacle for Xavier this year, but the amount of close games in conference play is something to keep an eye out for. 

Eight of Xavier’s 16 conference games thus far have been decided by five or fewer points, with two of them coming against No. 1 seed St. John’s, another against Creighton by way of a questionable call, and another against No. 3 seed Villanova.

A run for Xavier would not be impossible, but it is crucial they take the step from being competitive to actually executing for all 40 minutes against the conference’s elite teams.