By Ethan Nichols, World News Editor

New polling shows Democratic challenger Greg Landsman with a three-point lead over incumbent Republican Congressperson Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati). The poll was conducted by Impact Research and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%, having surveyed 506 likely voters in the district.

A recent poll conducted by Impact Research shows Democrat and Cincinnati City Councilmember Greg Landsman leading incumbent Republican Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati) by three points.

The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%, was run Sept. 17-21, with a sample size of 506 likely voters. It shows Landsman leading Chabot with 49% of the vote to Chabot’s 46%.

Landsman has served on Cincinnati City Council since 2017. Born and raised in Cincinnati, Landsman attended Ohio University and studied political science and economics. After college, he worked as a public high school teacher. He went on to earn a master’s degree in theology from Harvard and later worked for former Ohio governor Ted Strickland. Landsman then helped run the National Underground Railroad Freedom Center and the Preschool Promise campaign. 

Chabot has served in Congress since 1994. Before being elected to Congress, Chabot served on Cincinnati’s city council from 1985-1988 and was appointed Hamilton County Commissioner in 1990. He held the office until 1994 when he was first elected to Congress. Since being elected to Congress, Chabot has only been defeated once, by former congressperson Steve Driehaus in 2008, although Chabot defeated Driehaus in the next cycle. 

Chabot has been named a top target by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which added Ohio’s first district to its “Red-To-Blue” list. 

“This is one of relatively few opportunities for Democrats to flip a Republican seat this year. The stakes are very high,’’ Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, said. 

Chabot sailed to a smooth seven point victory over Democrat Kate Schroder in 2020, but after redistricting, the district has changed considerably. The district now contains all of the Democratic-friendly Cincinnati with conservative Warren County. 

Landsman was highly critical of Chabot. 

“He’s doing what his party, Trump and his donors want him to do. He is with them — big pharma, oil, the insurance industry. Ultimately, they are going to pay for his campaign. He is with them and not with the folks at home,” Landsman said.

The polling memo argues that Chabot’s strong name recognition could be detrimental to his re-election efforts and allow Landsman to establish himself positively. 

“Chabot is very much a known quantity (85% name-ID) after nearly 30 years in Congress — making it more difficult for him to move additional voters in his direction. Comparatively, a majority (54%) of voters aren’t yet familiar with Landsman, offering Landsman a greater ability to grow his support as he introduces himself more fully down the stretch,” the memo read.

Landsman’s ability to define himself and reach the voters who don’t know him yet could come down to ad spending. 

“The partisan fundamentals are still very competitive, and to solidify his advantage, Landsman must have the resources to fully introduce himself districtwide, rebut negative attacks from Chabot and the GOP PAC and hold Chabot accountable for sponsoring legislation that would ban virtually all abortions,” the memo read.