Opinions and Editorials Section
By Rieley McDonnell, Staff Writer
Democrats are going to win the midterms this year, and President Donald Trump is why.
Back in January 2025, no one in their sane minds would have thought that the Democrats would have a chance of flipping the Senate away from the Republicans. Well, the Democrats have a chance, and it is not just a fever dream made up by the left. It is a reality.
The Democratic Party has been making unprecedented gains in the polls. Right now, the generic ballot sits with the Democrats at +7.4%. This means that when a person polled was asked, “How would you vote if the election was held today,” 7.4% more of respondents said Democrat over Republican.
This is not to say that the road is easy for Democrats, but the chances of a flip are not zero. What is hindering the Democrats is the election map itself.
Out of the 35 seats up for election in the Senate, the Democrats are defending 22 seats while the Republicans only need to defend 13. To flip the Senate, the Democrats would need a net gain of four seats.
There are some unexpected places where Democrats could make gains in November. Take Texas, a usually “Ruby Red” state, where the challengers are State Rep. James Talarico (D) and State Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). In any normal year the Texas Senate race would not be up for debate but the national attitude towards Republicans and Trump has changed and impacted this race.
Paxton beat a beloved incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn, in the Republican primary race. The main factor for Coryn’s loss was Trump’s endorsement of Paxton.
Staff Writer Rieley McDonnell argues that figures like Ken Paxton, who have won primaries thanks to be endorsed by President Trump, will now face more scrutiny in the mid-terms as the president becomes increasingly unpopular.
The people who tend to vote in a party’s primary race are the ones who care enough to vote in that race – often those who are at the ideological extremes of a political party.
An average American might not even be aware that the primary is happening and just show up to vote in November. Republicans who turn up before November tend to be the ones who value an endorsement from Trump.
However, in November Republicans might not be inclined to vote Republican because of Paxton’s baggage.
Firstly, Paxton is endorsed by Trump as stated previously. This is a good thing among the people who like Trump, but according to The Texas Politics Project as of August, 42% of Texans approve of Trump.
Secondly, Paxton has been embroiled in scandals, including the first Texas state-level impeachment in over a century. He was acquitted, but the scar of corruption is still prominent on his political record.
Finally, Talarico is polling ahead of Paxton in the race. According to The New York Times, in over 10 different polls conducted in September, even by the standards of a Republican pollster, Talarico is ahead of Paxton anywhere from one to six points.
Texas is just one case study but is one of the most interesting. A state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since the 1980s might now be on track to do just that.
While Texas is not the whole nation, it can help provide a view into a potential trend. A Trump-endorsed Republican wins the primary. Trump’s endorsement helped them win but now it is more of a hindrance than a help to their campaign. They face a relatively well-liked Democratic challenger and now the seat is competitive.
Democrats can win the Senate. They just need to capitalize on Trump’s negative approval rating and put out likable candidates.
